Bull's Sports Betting Journal

I was getting crushed at FRLH for most of the past two weeks, so I took a little breather to play some SNGs.  I play the really cheap ones - $6 and less.  It's a fun way to blow off some steam, because the play is so bad that I can usually waltz to the bubble and then start to play.  And if I'm a card rack early I can practice my big stack skills.

Been different this week though as the beatings keep coming.  Last night in a $2.20 bounty STT at Spin32 Poker I had pocket JJ and flopped quads.  The only person to call my PFR decided to move all-in on me on the flop.  World's easiest call.  Unfortunately he had me covered by 20 chips and I could not collect his bounty.  He busted with crap on the next hand.

Two orbits later I have JJ again and flop a set.  I am getting action from one player and turn a boat.  He calls a 1/3 size pot bet on the turn, but must have missed his straight draw as he would not even call 500 in a 3K pot on the river.  I now have half the chips at the table with 5 players left and no bounties collected

That's all she wrote.  I lost 3 coin flips to become the short stack, and then my ATs<KQo and IGHN.  Poker Sucks!

So I shifted to a FRNL $100 game at Cake Poker.  I bought in for $35 and waited.  Played a few small pots and was up to about $40.  Watched AGGRO get played for a couple of big pots against a guy who looked to be very SOLID.  I had position on SOLID, so I was fine with the table. 

I limp from EP with 22 and got to see a cheap flop.  I hit my set on a T high board and bet out half the pot.  AGGRO calls making it HU.  Turn was a 9, but no straight possibilities.  I bet out half the pot and he comes OTT all-in.  I called for all my chips.  He had ATo for TPTK and doubled me up. 

The funny part was that even though I had played my hand very unimaginitively he started calling me every name in the book in chat.  Telling me he was going to "undonk his chips" from me and the like.  I just had to chuckle.  I stayed for another few orbits and nothing eventful happened.  Then I left with his chips.

Last night two of My DogDaq picks were getting trounced late in their games so I turned on a movie instead of watching baseball.  This morning I see that they both came back to take their games into exrtra innings.  They still both lost, but it would have been exciting to see.  Guess Yogi Berra was right:  It ain't over 'til its over.

Posted by Bullajami at 07:04 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I may have actually put together online's best poker rake race over at RakeRacers.com.  Everyone who has entered is about to win something - because there are so few entrants! 

Of course, if you look at the prize structure of the rake races I set up there, I could get hundreds of signups and every entrant would still win.  I really set it up as a means to provide a consistently higher level of rakeback than I am allowed by the terms and conditions of my affiliate agreements.  Those who want the good deals will figure it out eventually.

DogDaq is EN FUEGO!  We are up 48% as of today.  I have been doing quite a lot of messing with the numbers, and it is near certain that we have a winning online sports betting system.  In a few dozen more bets we should have statistically conclusive proof to support this.  Even absent that, I am still confident that:

1. The sytem works
2. We have been lucky as hell!
3. That's a GREAT combination to have going for you!

I have also decided that I will be using the same system for my sportsbook bonus chases during MLB and NHL seasons, but will probably be an arbing fool during NFL and NBA seasons.

I am also seriously toying with starting (yet another) website based on the DogDaq system almost exclusively - although I would call it something else.  ("DogDaq" is not very search engine friendly.  I do get 6 or 7 website hits a month for it, though, so it is growing as a search term.)  It would not be a mutual fund concept - just promoting online sportsbooks based on being able to beat the bookie using the value betting/line shopping system upon which DogDaq is based.  It could be a winning idea.

My day job is kicking my ass lately.  far too busy for my tastes.  If they're going to stick me at a desk job, the least they could do is make it a slacker's desk job.  Not a desk job that requires me to be here all the damn time.  Grrrrr.

My poker play has been very flat lately.  I had several big session offset by several awful sessions, and a couple of flat sessions on top.  Altogether I am up by a bit of rakeback over the past few weeks.  Too bad, as I played a lot more poker than normal during that time.

Later!

Posted by Bullajami at 03:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Now that I am back in the saddle for promoting poker at Bull's Betting Information, I can't tell if it's better or worse than before.  Definitely different.  Even when I find a good offer and get it posted it doesn't draw much more than a squeak from the forum community.  And those are some bonus-loving fools.

The problem, of course, is moving money.  It's hard to do for US players, so most players want to find a book and play it for months vice chasing off the bonus in a few days and moving on to another one.  It can be depressing, but I am determined to persevere.

Friday night at the tables I could not lose.  Saturday I could not win.  Sunday I could not lose again.  I definitely like winning more than losing. 

First hand Saturday, I have AA in the BB and get cracked by 92o in the SB, who called down on a KJ9 J 9 board.  I should have known right there to stop playing.  I took one pot in just under 200 hands.  I couldn't stand any more abuse after that.  Just one of those nights!

I am loving the podcasts that some ITHers are doing from the WSOP.  The hand recounting is good, and the colorful commentary from nsidestrate on the hijynx after they bust out is great!  I am leaving in about 48 hours and I am stoked!

When I get home, though, I have to get serious about my health.  I had a physical health assessment recently and the Doc said I am a ticking bomb for a heart attack.  All my numbers are bad:  blood pressure, cholesterol, weight, and family history.  In gambler's parlance, I need to adopt a more +EV lifestyle for my health.  After Vegas, of course.

Happy Chasing!

Posted by Bullajami at 12:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

When I was working poker promotions for ITH I found that most poker sites wanted me to find cash game players (they generate the most rake) and then reward them with tournaments - freerolls or free entries.  Those promotions were never very popular.

The most popular promotions were the rake races, promotions that rewarded cash grinders with a bonus for generating the most rake.  Now that Matthew wants to focus ITH on the core poker strategy aspect of his website, I don't think we'll be seeing any more rake races at ITH (although I don't know that for sure.)

But, you know me - I am all about the promotion/bonus/rakeback/getting-something-for-cash-game-grinding kind of guy.  Therefore, I wanted to expand on the rake race concept, so I have established a new website dedicated to monthly rake racing....(drum roll, please...)

Rake Racers!!!

I have four poker sites (all US friendly) lined up, and hope to add some more in the future.  I am also paying out to A LOT of places every race, every month, so this is an excellent opportunity for players to grab a bonus on top of their regular rakeback every month.

If you have already registered for one of those poker rooms via one of my other sites, then you are eligible for the races at Rake Racers.

The site is functional, but far from finished.  Your input is always welcome on how I can make this good idea a better reality.  I hope to see you there.

Posted by Bullajami at 07:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I was on fire at the tables for most of last week.  3-tabling at Cake Poker I was finishing every session up.  My last session was a real hoot.  I jumped on a $2/4 table as the 7th player.  In the first 7 hands I went to showdown 4 times and won a big pot every time.  I busted one guy who complained at me for a while in chat and then left the table.  So, I was up 35 BB in 7 hands. 

Unfortunately, 140 hands later I was up only 2 BB, and I was now 5 for 14 at showdown.  Friggin' poker!

DogDaq is doing OK.  I got some very good feedback from some math geeks at SBR, both of whom think the methodology is sound and the math will eventually bear that out.  When I contacted them we had only 93 bets, so we had not yet reached a statistically significant threshold, but if the ROI remains similar for another 93 bets, we will reach statistical significance.  I look forward to that, and hope it comes.

On the home front, my baseball playing son, Dawg is benched for the summer.  He broke two fingers playing football in PE class at school.  The doctor wants him to be seen by an orthopedic surgeon, they may need to operate.  He managed to chip a large piece of bone off of his middle finger, and it is free-floating in the swollen mass.  Fortunately, it is not his pitching hand, but he will not be able to play for several months.

I leave for Las vegas on June 4.  Getting excited! 

Posted by Bullajami at 07:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I am going to Las Vegas from 4-13 June.  This will be the longest time I have ever stayed in Vegas, and I am a little nervous that I will get burnout.  I stayed in Vegas 5 days once and I was ready to go home after 4 days, so this will definitely test my focus.

The trip just kept getting longer and longer.  My original plan was to take my brother to Vegas for a surprise birthday present from June 8-10.  He has Down's Syndrome, and I do not think either of us would do well in Vegas for more than two days given his limitations.  When I asked my Dad if he thought there was anything wrong with my plan he was so enthusiastic that I invited him to come as well.  Then my other brother got added in.  Plus a side trip to the Grand Canyon.  Then my Dad made the flight plans for them to leave Vegas LATE on the 12th, and being the master of ceremonies, I did not want to depart before them, so I am staying until the 13th.

On the front side I saw that quite a few of my ITH friends are going to be in Vegas for the first week of the WSOP.  That is THE BEST time to be in Las Vegas, so I extended my trip forward to the 4th so as to be able to spend some time with them.  That is how it got to be from teh 4th to the 13th.

I need to play some cash poker games while I am there.  Those games are so very soft, and it would be nice to get some of the trip financed from the other tourists.  I'll have two kids in private school next year, and they both need new shoes!  My best time for that will be early in the trip before my family arrives, but that is also the time I want to provide some live reports on ITHers at the WSOP, so I will need to stirke a balance. 

Plus I have to get loaded with these guys once, and I need to stay away from the tables AND THE RAIL when I do.

Many of my poker playing friends encourage me to play in the WSOP or some of the large tournaments that pop up in Vegas at WSOP time.  I have to say NO THANKS to that!  I am not a bad MTT player, but I have no desire to play 10+ hours of poker in a day anymore.  I played (and won) an ITH event at last summer's Atlantic City convention.  It was about 5 and a half hours and I was getting nutty.  I finished second in a big tournament on AP after 6.5 hours once, and I was ready to shoot myself I was so sick of playing.  There's no way I am playing my best (or even good) poker at that point, so why bother?  It's just not my cup of tea.  Give me 4 hours of cash tables and a nice long break, and I can be back at it again.

I also want to try scalping live vs internet sports bets again.  It was not good last year when I tried it, but I want to at least LOOk at it again this year.  I might score a few comps at the hotel if I can give them enough action in their SB.

Posted by Bullajami at 10:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

DogDaq is up over 12% currently.  It should not last at that level, though.  The value of our bets is not that high - but we'll take the positive variance wherever we can get it.

I am also testing another value betting strategy I conceived.  I'll go public if it's winning after 100 bets. 

I think Matchbook Exchange is having an impact on the other online sportsbooks.  I see the lines on games change more rapidly now than in the past, and finding scalping opportunities is getting a bit tougher.  Perhaps it was like this during baseball season last year and I did not notice, but it just feels like the lines are moving faster - as if someone is sitting at the sportsbook monitoring the moving lines at Matchbook and adjusting their own lines along with them.  Maybe I am just paranoid.

I am going to be adding some monthly sportsbook specials at Bull's Betting Information.  This month it is an EXTRA 10% bonus on SportsInteraction.  

I have also been adding some content to Bull's Betting Information, so if you haven't been to the site for a while, be sure to check it out.

Since resigning/being let go at ITH, I have been looking for poker rooms to promote at Bulls Betting Information.  One method I use to do this is to participate at aa variety of online poker forums.  One forum frequently has posts for people wanting to exchange money at one poker site for money at another poker site - for a profit.  Typically a 10% mark-up.  So far I have made $40 swapping cash between poker sites.  Its like getting paid to be a forum member there.

I have found some good poker rooms to promote as well.  After getting nearly everyone who trusts my poker judgement to join at Cake Poker via ITH, I got a Cake rakeback deal for Bull's Betting Information.    (My deal is a little better, though, if you have not yet signed up.)

I also have PokerNordica for 30% rakeback.  I like that one because they put the rakeback directly into your account DAILY.  They also do not count your bonus against your rakeback.  It's not a great bonus on its own, but once you've added in the rakeback, it's a pretty sweet deal.  PokerNordica is on the Merge network.  Carbon Poker is the big room on that network - and they take US players.

I set up a different site for RedStar Poker.  The domain name Redstar-rakeback.com was available, so I grabbed it.  It's the next best room to play on the Cake network, and it has the same rakeback and bonus deals as Cake. 

My two recent poker bonus chases were the Cake reload and the initial deposit bonus at the bizarrely named Collegiate Series of Poker.  I deposited $30 at CSOP to get a $90 bonus, then I deposited another $10 when I busted the $30 playing $50 NL.  I cashed out $437 yesterday.  That site is unbelievably soft at lower NL play.

HAPPY CHASING!

Posted by Bullajami at 08:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Been feeding the fish lately playing $50 NL.  Getting called when I'm way ahead on the flop just to get outdrawn down the stretch.  I did manage to get all my money in when behind once when my pocket 99 was an overpair to the board, but I rivered my set, and busted his AA for a big pot.  What goes around comes around.  At least every once in a while.

I continue to try to improve Bull's Betting Information.  After spending weeks on SEO and seeing no real improvements in site traffic I have decided to just focus on content and organization.  If its useful, people will come.  I am tired of licking Google's boots.

I am also going to start offering some more specials.  In fact I have already got a few on the site, and I plan to get some others out there as soon as I can.  Its tough being a part time webmaster.

I am going to be in Las Vegas for 9 days in June.  4-13.  I have never been in Vegas that long before.  I will be fortunate to survive.  Really looking forward to covering the WSOP events and the friends I have playing in them during that time.  Rail support until they bust, drinking buddy thereafter.

We increased the DogDaq betting unit to 2%, and have been getting our asses kicked ever since.  Now our results look pathetic, and it's very misleading.  We were betting small when we were hot, and betting big when we were losing, so our results are all skewed.  In the long run I am still convinced we will come out ahead by 6-7%.  Hopefully that long run doesn't take forever to get here.

Posted by Bullajami at 01:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

A sportsbook freeplay bonus is a wagering credit.  You can bet it just like cash, but only the profit is returned to you when you win, not the betting credit.  If you have a $10 freeplay and bet it on a +100 line and win, you get $10 in cash, but lose your betting credit.  If you were betting cash on that +100 line, when you win your $10 bet is returned as well as the $10 of betting profit.

You don't need to do too much digging to find an article explaining how to maximize your freeplay bonus.  Indeed, freeplay calculators abound on the internet to help bettors properly size their bets in order to gurantee the maximum betting profit. 

In a nutshell, the method has you put your freeplay money on the money line of a HUGE underdog, while simultaneously putting cash on the favorite at at another sportsbook.  When properly executed, this method can typically convert 80% of the value of the freeplay bonus to cash.  This is much better than you could expect to do by attempting to pick winners.

The problem is that this action of putting your freeplay on a huge underdog flags you at the sportsbook as a bonus exploiter.  As someone who has done a little reading and is looking to make smart plays.  The sportsbooks prefers to cater to suckers, not educated bettors.  Not bettors who probably have a big bankroll at another book.  You may have set yourself up to be watched.

An altrnative that should pay off at a similar rate, and may keep you at a lower profile is to use three-team parlays.  Three-team parlays typically pay off at 6-1.  Randomly picking 3 teams to win will show a profit one time in eight.  Getting paid off at 6-1 once every eight bets returns 75% on the total amount bet.  If you are a 55% handicapper your rate of retrun increases dramatically to 98%.  (If you're a 55% handicapper, you're not chasing a freeplay bonus, though.  You're making your living betting on sports.)

If you are working a sportsbook that offers frequent reload bonuses of the freeplay variety, it may be worth your time to mix in some parlay play with your "Big Dog" freeplays.  It could keep you out of trouble with the sportsbook and keep you eligible for those extra freeplay bonuses.

Posted by Bullajami at 11:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Enjoying some positive variance this past week.  I played two 30-seat SNGs at Cake and won them both.  I am not sure that the math on the bounty tournaments supports them being a wise choice, but the play is so awful that I routinely make the money in them.

I am also still whittling away at the Collegiate Series of Poker first deposit bonus.  The level of play at the $50 NL tables is poor.  I can usually get 2-3 tables going at full ring, but the pace of play is usually slow.  Maybe 45-50 hands/hour.  The software is a little slow, but mostly the players seem to take more time than is needed to make their bad decisions. Lots of europeans on that site, so maybe they are more attuned to a slower pace.

That chase has been a roller coaster.  Currently way up with about 75% of my play requirement met.

Some big news seems to be brewing in online poker.  Poker Stars may be set to roll out a revenue sharing plan for affiliates.  Up 'til now PS would only pay affiliates a one time finders fee for new players - making rakeback impossible.  With revenue sharing rakeback becomes possible, although the word on the street is that Poker Stars will not allow it.  They can easily thwart rakeback by not providing affiliates with individual player stats.  If your affiliate is not told how much you played (and paid) there is no way for him to get you your rakeback.

There are some ways to circumvent the lack of player stats.  For marketing purposes many sites provide different "trackers" to affiliates.  That way the affiliate knows if his newsletter is generating more sign ups or the review he posted on the website.  You can get stats for each tracker - thus if you make sure each new player uses a unique tracker when they sign up, you can know the player's stats and provide rakeback.  Many Party Poker affiliates were doing this a few years back, and Party slapped them down when they figured it out.  It will be interesting to see how many "underground" deals pop up for Poker Stars if they allow revenue sharing.

Dog Daq is taking a beating this past week.  A miserable 1-5 showing of late.  We also had a shareholder vote on increasing the betting unit to 2%.  The majority wanted it, so we will be doing that as soon as I can verify that the couple of non-responders are not unhappy about the decision.

I continue to churn at Just Bet.  I am in no hurry now that busting looks unlikely.  They have a 60 day hold for cashouts if you take their 20% cash, so I have 6 weeks before I can retrieve that money anyways.

I continue to investigate cashiering options as well.  The slow turn I am taking on that ought to be an indication of how it is going - frustratingly.  The lone stand out seems to be PIC club, who at least has had fantastic customer service, even if they want a cavity search before activating your account.  More on that to come...

Happy Chasing!

Posted by Bullajami at 07:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)