Bull's Sports Betting Journal

I popped $300 into Players Superbook for a $60 bonus on Tuesday.  They run pretty much non-stop at 20% bonuses via Neteller, 4X rollover, but they have a 30-day wait before you can withdraw policy. That's a hassle, but I figure over time I should bust on the first bet 50% of the time, so it averages out, and makes it worthwhile.  Unfortunately, I didn't bust on bet one this time.  I couldn't find any decent lines for Wednesday's games, but I have it all in on two games for today.  Maybe I'll get lucky.

I received SHARP SPORTSBETTING by Harry Wong from Amazon yesterday.  Looking forward to reading that - it is the most highly recommended book I see in SportsBetting Forums.

I realized recently that my self-imposed rule of having at least the rollover requirement for the book you are currently chasing in reserve at another book is not excessively conservative at all - as I had first thought.  I think if I illustrate with an example it will be more clear as to why.

I deposit $200 into Book A for 20% at 4X rollover.  I have $240, and my rollover is $960, so I have $960 in Book B as my reserve to bet against Book A.  First bet, I take a moneyline for +200 at Book A, and -200 at Book B (I'll take an even up wager for the opportunity to bust in one bet.) 

I put $240 on Book A (+200), to win $480.  I must put $480 on Book B(-200) to win $240 to offset.  I win my bet at Book A.  Now I have $720 in Book A, with a $720 WR remaining.  I only have $480 left in Book B to bet against it.  I may end up getting my whole BR in Book A, and not have any money left to bet against it in Book B, even though I had the entire rollover in reserve when I started.  It seems very obvious when I write it all out, but it did not occur to me before.  Perhaps I am slow, but at least I can learn.

Moral of the story:  YOU CAN NEVER HAVE TOO MUCH MONEY TO SCALP SPORTSBOOKS FOR BONUSES.  I don't think I am going to adjust my criteria at this time - having 1X the rollover in reserve - but I will be more wary where I stand than before, now that I have figured this out.

Posted by Bullajami at 08:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Well, the Clippers pulled it out, and I busted out of Linesmaker in 3 bets.  That's a happy moment.  I watched the ending of that game and the Clippers tried hard to screw it up - giving up a 16 point lead in the fourth quarter, but managing to avoind getting ladt-shotted into overtime. 

I should have used that opportunity to flip my roll immediately into another book for Sunday's games, but I've been catching a little flack at home about the amount of time I spend on the computer, so I missed the opportunity and instead did some domestic work and spent a little time with my family.  It's all good.

I have to look at the books and see if I want to try a new one or go back to Bodog or Players Superbook for a reload.  I can do CanBet for a Thursday reload, also.  I need to decide and act before dinner tonight, so that I get my money back in play.  I am leaning toward Bodog.

I am starting to question the notion that the books don't care if you win or lose - which is what I have read in many places.  If that were the case, why do affiliates get paid out of player losses, and not based on action?  it does not make sense to me, and I need to investigate that further.

Posted by Bullajami at 09:59 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I took a few days off from sports betting.  I don't know why, as it has been consistently profitable for me to chase the books.  And lately I have been doing very well in busting out bonuses from one book to another without having to complete the wagering requirement.  Thus my earn rate has been higher than normal as I can proceed from one bonus to the next in short order.

I spent the 'off' time playing a bit of poker, researching a few new poker sites, and working on my website.  It is somewhat time consuming to research a book, its bonus terms and then deposit and hunt for lines, and it just sort of fell by the wayside.  Probably because I have to wait until the evening to do it, and by then most of the games have been played for the day, so there's smaller chance to hunt up some good arbs.

But I made the plunge last night.  I researched Linesmaker and found that they are part of the Sportingbet Group (who also owns Paradise Poker).  They don't have a great reputation on many forums, but I get the sense its because they have a very low toleration for sharps and steam players, and have stiffed a few Polish players as well.  I am taking a bit of a risk playing them, but I think it's probably worth it.  At least, I hope so!

After depositing $1K for a $200 bonus, I was able to find 3 lines right away that appealed to me.  I was able to get all my money in on 3 bets, and two of them have already busted.  The third is on the Clippers / Nuggets game Saturday night, so I'll have to wait until Sunday morning to see if it was a clean sweep.  That would be swell!  (Go Clippers!)

Posted by Bullajami at 10:09 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I have been laying low on sports betting the past few days.  Just waiting for a few things to come together before I make another deposit and press ahead.  In the meantime I got to thinking about online sports books and if they would take offense to my style of betting.  I did some research on a few reputable sites, and from what I have read, this is what I have concluded:

No, they don't.

Not the good ones anyways.  Typically the books make the bulk of their money from the action, not from bettor's placing losing bets.  They profit from the juice or vigorish.  Their goal is to get equal amounts of money on both sides of a line in order to have the losers pay off the winners, and the book keeps the juice.  Arbitrage bettors, like me, don't really impact that model in a negative way.  I am taking the line as offered, when offered.

Who then do they dislike if not arb hunters?  Steam players and Sharp bettors.  Steam is when a large amount of money moves into one side of a line, usually as the betting picks up just before game time..  A steam player observes this and then makes his move before the book can adjust the line to correct.  He then has better odds than the book wants him to have.  A sharp bettor is one who studies the game, the lines, and public (recreational bettor) trends.  He usually studies the lines as they first come out, and predicts, based on his analysis, how he believes they will move in the future.  If he can get a better price now, he takes it.  A good sharp consistently ends up with a better price than the book wants him to have on the line.

So steam players and sharp bettors are easily identified by the books based on their betting history.  The book merely needs to look at how frequently the bettor got a better price than the final line.  If the bettor is consistenly getting better prices, he is likely a sharp or steam player.  Books don't like those guys.  They are frequently banned or have their wagering limits capped at a very low value.

I won't be calling all my books and informing them that I am mostly looking for arbs and bonuses.  Some would ban me I am sure, but I don't think the books are actively searching for my ilk so they can ban me.  I am likely giving them enough action at prices they enjoy to stay out of trouble for quite some time.  At least, that's what I am hoping!

Posted by Bullajami at 11:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I got a couple of additional referrals to Bodog based on my offer in the forum, so I had another $400 there to work off.  Busted it all out in a single bet.  I do enjoy making quick work of a wagering requirement like that. 

I parked another $200 into Player's SuperBook Saturday for a 20% bonus, and busted that one in a single bet as well.  I would do that site for more, but if the bets bust into PSB instead of out of it, you really are "parking" your money.  You can't withdraw it for 30 days from the deposit, even if the WR is met.  The wagering requirement is 4X, so if I did $500 +$100, I could conceivably end up parking $2400 in PSB for a month. Not very helpful to me at this point in my bankroll development.

I am contemplating having a go at Linesmaker.com next.  They have a nice bonus and a decent interface, but they are rated only a D+ at SportsBookReview.com.  That's pretty low.  Apparently about a year ago they decided to stop accepting players from Poland, and a few existing Polish players got stiffed on cash outs.  Other than that, I can't find any negative reports on them.  Being as I am not Polish, I think it may be worth a go.  They also have a Boss Media poker room with an $80 bonus that looks do-able as well.

I am experimenting with taking a small loss on the wagers to get the favorite at the book I want the money to go to.  Saturday's Bodog bet was a prime example.  I took a line that gave me +177 at Bodog and -180 at Pinnacle.  I put $400 at +177 for $708 payout, and then $710 at -180 for $395.  Now I am going to lose $2 or $5 either way, but I have a really great chance to bust the whole bet at once by taking the favorite at the book where I want the money to go.  So far so good on this, but when I end up going the wrong way a couple of times in a row, I'm sure I'll be singing a different song!

Posted by Bullajami at 09:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Well, my fantasy of busting out of WSSB and getting a reload offer turns out to be just that - a fantasy.  Of the seven arbs I found in the two days I was there, 4 of them were won at WSSB, so I am net positive in that account.  I put in my cashout request this morning.  I made about $30 off the arbs there, but I would much rather be clearing a bonus while I am betting, so it is time to pack up and move on.

I'm not sure where I will be heading.  I think VirtualBookmaker is doing one of their very frequent 20% reloads.  The drawback with them is that you must leave the money in your account for 30 days.  While that's only applicable when you don't bust out there, it seems to be my fortune to win my bets at VBM when I play there.  Over time it should even out at 50 - 50, especially on the over/unders and the point spread bets, but I seem to have 'very good luck' at VBM.  (When I would prefer to lose it all in one bet!)

I have about $7K in my sportsbetting bankroll for anyone interested.  Given that I need the total rollover amount in my home book (Pinnacle) for betting against the fresh deposit + bonus, I can do a 20% at 5X for a $1,000 deposit.  This gives me a rollover of 5X $1200, or $6K.  So, if I dump $1K into a book for 20% at 5X, I need $6K in Pinnacle to be certain I can complete the wagering requirement before I run out of money in Pinnacle.  This formula of mine is fairly conservative, as it presumes I will win ALL of my bets at the new book.  I probably don't need to be quite so conservative, but having had my roll wedged into a book before the WR was complete TWICE now , I'll stick to being conservative for a while.

There are several 20% up to $500 bonuses at major books that I have not yet played.  The rollover being 3X or 5X.  For the 3X books, My bankroll needs to be $11.5K ($2.5K for the deposit, and then $9K remaining to bet against it to meet the rollover.)  For the 5X books, I'll need $17.5K.  Looking forward to growing my BR to get to those phat bonuses!

Posted by Bullajami at 08:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I think I rolled my entire bankroll over at least twice this past weekend betting on sports.  Friday I busted everything out of Canbet's Thursday reload, a Bodog reload, and a Players SuperBook reload all in one day.  Five bets.  That rocks!

Saturday I laid low, just making a few small bets.  Sunday I deposited at WSSB, only to discover that they wouldn't give me the deposit bonus as they said I already had an account at VIP.  Well, I have an account at VIP Poker, but not VIP Sports, but the CS agent was intransigent.  I asked for my deposit back and was warned if I didn't roll it over at least 1X before withdrawing they would charge me 3% for the transaction.  Annoyed, I hung up on the CS person.

Then I commenced to find 4 arbs between them and Pinnacle, two on NBA, 2 on MLB.  So I got all my money in for the 1X rollover, and made a few bucks on the deal.  I found 3 more arbs this morning, so I got the remainder of my money in at WSSB again.  I am hoping to lose it all (into Pinnacle) so that I might get a sympathy reload bonus offer from WSSB.  That would be cool.  At any rate, I'll not be paying any 3% withdrawal fee, tyvm! 

I think I need to beef up the sports betting section of my website.  I have some additional information to put out.  I think I could also make it easier to navigate and find the existing information that I have.  Feel free to leave a comment here or in the forum if you'd like to see something in particular.

Posted by Bullajami at 02:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I have a standing offer to split my refer-a-friend bonus with anyone who signs up at Bodog after getting referred by me.  I have had 3 bettors take me up on this offer recently, and they all deposited $500, putting $200 bonus bucks each into my Bodog account.  This requires me to roll it over 3X before cashing out.  No problem, its all essentially bonus money to me.

I made my $1800 requirement and tried to cash ($1600), but Bodog claimed I still owed $1200 in rollover.  After an extensive e-mail tag chain, they explained that I still owed $1200 in rollover for playing the casino from a month ago (when I busted out, BTW).  It's probably in their T&Cs someplace that this is a legitimate requirement, but I was still annoyed - since they had profited off my $300 casino busting already.  So, I went to work. 

I found 3 moneyline events where I could wager $400 each on the favorite at Bodog, and then cover for almost all of it at Pinnacle.  All 3 of my Bodog picks hit, so now instead of cashing me out at $1600, they have to cash me at $2300.  Heh!  (I love sticking it to the man!)

To Bodog's credit, they cashed me out in a few hours after the request.  Playing Canbet now.  I did the Thursday reload bonus deal there.  Hopefully I'll find a tasty line and bust it all in one bet.  I love when that happens.  Also took a small piece of action in Player's SuperBook again.  They have frequent 20% redeposit bonuses, so I grabbed at one. 

Posted by Bullajami at 10:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Found a moneyline "micro-arb" last night on the LA / Vancouver NHL contest.  Put $300 on it at Bodog and $458 at Pinnacle, for a guaranteed $2 either way.  Yeah - getting rich on that!  Really, I am just trying to clear the Bodog bonus money out, still.  Happily it went the way I wanted and the Pinnacle bet won, forcing my bankroll out of Bodog and into Pinnacle, the desired result.

This morning I found a baseball Micro-arb that allows me to bet the rest of my Bodog bankroll against a matching Pinnacle bet.  Hoping that Pinnacle bet wins again, and I can be done with Bodog for a while.  Their never-ending bonus money is nice, but the lines are not as friendly as they could be, and they always post them later than just about anyone else.

Posted by Bullajami at 09:46 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

My current effort is to bust out of Bodog.  I made an offer in the forum to split my half of the refer-a friend bonus with anyone who wanted to sign up at Bodog using me as a referer.  I have had 3 people take me up on this so far, so I have $600 in bonus money at Bodog.  I have to roll it over 3X in the sports book before I can withdraw it.  Or I can bust it out over to Pinnacle - which is what I would prefer to do. 

I put it all on LSU for Saturday's game.  I took the spread, and I found a niche where the juice cancelled, so I had LSU at -2 (-105) at Bodog and UCLA at +2 (+105) at Pinnacle.  I just wanted to clear the bonus money out of Bodog.  Not happening!  LSU got clobbered, and now I have to find another line at Bodog and Pinnacle to bet this again.  Hopefully it won't take too long.  Especially with baseball starting up, there should be plenty of lines to sift through.

Interestingly, I was watching The Sopranos last night and Tony was watching a boxing match with some rapper who was also in the hospital with him.  The rapper's pick lost the fight and he complained he had just lost $50K.  Tony asked him where he did his betting, and he replied, "Pinnacle".  .  I thought it was funny.

Posted by Bullajami at 09:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Practically everyone has bet on the outcome of a sporting event at one time or another.  Usually it's just for fun - to add to the thrill of your favorite team being in a big game, or to spice up the office camaraderie with a March Madness pool.  Sometimes these entertaining wagers are not even for cash, but for a favor or some type of mild public humiliation for the loser.  The rules can just get invented as the bettors go along.  If you want to wager profitably online, however, there are some basic guidelines you'll want to know and follow.  I'll outline some of this basic guidance here.

1.  Shop around for the best line on your game.  While it is common to find several books with the same line on a game, it is also common to see the lines be slightly different.  Here's why: the book is not trying to win the bet, the book is trying to keep the juice from all the betting.  To do this, they attempt to balance the amount of wagering on each side of a bet.  Books will shift the spread or the juice on a line to encourage more wagering in one direction or other to try to balance the wagering, dependent on the previous wagering they have accrued on that line.  This is why the lines are so volatile near game time - the books are scrambling to decrease their exposure to one side of a line.  So, one book may drop the juice from -110 to -105 on a line to encourage more bets on that side of the line, while another book is more balanced and can keep the juice on that side of the bet at -110. 

Getting the bets you want at reduced juice will benefit you substantially over time.