Churning Ain't Earning
I should know better than to open my yap. Ever since predicting my earn rate would escalate, it has plummeted! Why? Fast bustouts are few and far between for the past few weeks. Churning through 5X and 7X rollover requirements is not the path to the higher earn rate I saw on the horizon a few weeks ago.
It's not costing me money, but I have opened my small loss toleration to about 5% to guarantee that I would be able to find a decent number of bets. The thinking was this would allow me to plow through bonuses faster. But, if I cycle 4 bets at -5% each, I've eaten up a 20% bonus trying to clear it. This has led me to throttle down on my loss toleration as I get farther into the rollover on a book without busting out of it.
I have also stopped trying to evenly split the loss between books. I now eat the whole loss when the bet goes toward the book I prefer. That way I have no loss if my roll at a book I was hoping to bust starts growing instead of shrinking toward bustout as I'd prefer.
I am just experiencing a form of negative variance in this sportsbook chasing game. The Gambling Gods must enjoy the irony of me having proclaimed my earn rate was about to increase. I should have learned from poker that they listen to everything one says, and to keep my yap shut!
